Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,662
2 South Dakota 125,012
3 Rhode Island 115,231
4 Utah 113,023
5 Arizona 109,901
6 Tennessee 109,264
7 Oklahoma 104,822
8 Iowa 104,694
9 Wisconsin 104,495
10 Arkansas 103,891
11 Nebraska 102,307
12 Kansas 99,733
13 Alabama 98,402
14 Indiana 97,102
15 Mississippi 97,009
16 South Carolina 95,257
17 Idaho 94,063
18 Nevada 93,861
19 Wyoming 92,181
20 Illinois 92,164
21 Montana 91,468
22 Louisiana 90,430
23 Georgia 89,036
24 Texas 88,820
25 California 88,548
26 Kentucky 88,374
27 New Mexico 86,349
28 Delaware 85,615
29 Florida 85,543
30 New Jersey 84,558
31 Minnesota 84,170
32 Missouri 83,039
33 Massachusetts 81,331
34 Ohio 80,698
35 New York 79,850
36 North Carolina 79,243
37 Alaska 77,239
38 Connecticut 75,960
39 Colorado 72,531
40 West Virginia 71,487
41 Pennsylvania 70,629
42 Virginia 64,824
43 Michigan 63,222
44 Maryland 61,598
45 District of Columbia 55,446
46 New Hampshire 52,375
47 Washington 43,754
48 Puerto Rico 41,310
49 Oregon 35,771
50 Maine 31,816
51 Vermont 22,303
52 Hawaii 18,941

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 473
2 Rhode Island 393
3 New York 369
4 Connecticut 325
5 New Jersey 271
6 Mississippi 265
7 North Carolina 264
8 Kentucky 252
9 Delaware 238
10 Florida 238
11 Virginia 229
12 Alaska 226
13 Massachusetts 226
14 Tennessee 213
15 Georgia 212
16 Oklahoma 210
17 Vermont 190
18 Pennsylvania 186
19 Utah 183
20 Alabama 178
21 Arizona 176
22 New Hampshire 174
23 California 166
24 Ohio 163
25 District of Columbia 158
26 West Virginia 155
27 Kansas 154
28 Wyoming 152
29 South Dakota 146
30 Indiana 142
31 Colorado 140
32 Iowa 135
33 Nevada 132
34 Montana 131
35 Louisiana 129
36 Texas 127
37 Illinois 122
38 New Mexico 122
39 Maryland 115
40 Minnesota 108
41 Arkansas 106
42 Puerto Rico 104
43 Wisconsin 101
44 North Dakota 100
45 Idaho 99
46 Washington 94
47 Maine 86
48 Michigan 82
49 Nebraska 78
50 Missouri 77
51 Oregon 66
52 Hawaii 21

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,532
2 New York 2,348
3 Massachusetts 2,258
4 Rhode Island 2,212
5 Mississippi 2,184
6 Connecticut 2,089
7 South Dakota 2,084
8 Arizona 2,058
9 Louisiana 2,005
10 North Dakota 1,917
11 Alabama 1,887
12 Indiana 1,816
13 Pennsylvania 1,809
14 Arkansas 1,751
15 Illinois 1,751
16 New Mexico 1,693
17 Iowa 1,668
18 Michigan 1,615
19 Tennessee 1,590
20 South Carolina 1,564
21 Nevada 1,537
22 Kansas 1,512
23 Georgia 1,477
24 Texas 1,432
25 Ohio 1,407
26 District of Columbia 1,391
27 Florida 1,357
28 Delaware 1,325
29 Missouri 1,285
30 Maryland 1,259
31 Montana 1,246
32 West Virginia 1,236
33 California 1,200
34 Wisconsin 1,166
35 Minnesota 1,143
36 Wyoming 1,143
37 Nebraska 1,100
38 Colorado 1,030
39 Oklahoma 1,026
40 Idaho 1,011
41 North Carolina 1,011
42 Kentucky 1,005
43 New Hampshire 835
44 Virginia 824
45 Washington 627
46 Puerto Rico 602
47 Utah 560
48 Oregon 506
49 Maine 484
50 Alaska 377
51 Vermont 306
52 Hawaii 298

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 16
2 Georgia 9
3 South Carolina 9
4 Wyoming 8
5 Florida 7
6 Connecticut 6
7 Massachusetts 6
8 New York 6
9 New Mexico 5
10 Oklahoma 5
11 California 4
12 Indiana 4
13 Kansas 4
14 Maryland 4
15 Mississippi 4
16 Nevada 4
17 North Carolina 4
18 Arkansas 3
19 Delaware 3
20 Kentucky 3
21 Louisiana 3
22 Ohio 3
23 Alaska 2
24 Illinois 2
25 Iowa 2
26 New Jersey 2
27 South Dakota 2
28 Tennessee 2
29 Texas 2
30 West Virginia 2
31 Wisconsin 2
32 Alabama 1
33 Arizona 1
34 Colorado 1
35 District of Columbia 1
36 Michigan 1
37 Montana 1
38 New Hampshire 1
39 Pennsylvania 1
40 Vermont 1
41 Virginia 1
42 Washington 1
43 Hawaii 0
44 Idaho 0
45 Maine 0
46 Minnesota 0
47 Missouri 0
48 Nebraska 0
49 North Dakota 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 Utah 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 318,594 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 269,185 2 99
Bent Colorado 255,334 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,788 4 99
Lake Tennessee 237,600 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 127,100 225 92
Richland South Carolina 94,038 1210 61
York South Carolina 87,793 1525 51
Orange California 81,113 1839 41
Pierce Washington 41,099 2900 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 6,775 3 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,682 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,173 1926 38
Orange California 1,139 1964 37
Richland South Carolina 1,138 1966 37
York South Carolina 1,068 2067 34
Pierce Washington 564 2684 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons